They’re Not Fighting Him. They’re Fleeing Him.
What the biggest congressional exodus since 2018 tells us about Trump’s grip on power
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TL;DR
Record pace: Forty House members have already said they are not running again in 2026, the highest early retirement pace since 2018 (Ballotpedia).
The split: That group includes 23 Republicans and 17 Democrats, so the party in power is losing more incumbents (Ballotpedia’s House tracker).
More coming: Reporting based on GOP insiders says as many as 20 additional House Republicans are likely to announce retirements on top of those 23 (summary of that reporting).
The MTG signal: Even Marjorie Taylor Greene has announced she will resign after a public break with Trump, saying Republicans are “terrified” to step out of line on 60 Minutes.
Big picture: They are not fighting him in public. They are quietly backing away and hoping we do not notice.
When Trump’s Defenders Break Ranks
“I think they are terrified to step out of line and get a nasty Truth Social post on them.”
That is Marjorie Taylor Greene.
One of Trump’s loudest defenders since 2020.
Saying this about her fellow Republicans in Congress.
On 60 Minutes, on her way out.
On November 21, Greene announced she will resign from Congress effective January 5, 2026.
She has spent years branding herself as Trump’s human megaphone.
As one overview of her retirement notes, she is leaving alongside Nancy Pelosi, and both will qualify for generous ex-lawmaker perks that suddenly landed back in the spotlight when they said they were done (New York Post summary).
Crucially, she is not leaving because she lost.
She is not leaving because a scandal made her unelectable.
She is leaving after Trump turned on her.
She pushed hard to release the Epstein files.
Trump initially waved the issue off and resisted, before finally signing under pressure.
In a segment focused on those files and in follow up coverage, she says that:
“Standing up for American women who were raped at 14, trafficked and used by rich powerful men should not result in me being called a traitor and threatened by the President of the United States.”
Trump responded the way he often does.
On Truth Social, he called her a traitor and he called her very dumb.
He promised to back someone new.
Outlets like TIME and People have already walked through the feud and what it reveals:
Mocking him in private.
Obeying him in public.
Then finally, a break.
Greene is not a hero here.
She is a narrator.
She is telling you her colleagues mock him behind closed doors and “kiss his ass” on camera.
She is saying the quiet part out loud.
They are not loyal.
They are afraid.
And even she has decided that fear is not worth staying for.
The Number That Should Make You Sit Up
As of early December, Ballotpedia’s list of House incumbents not running in 2026 includes forty sitting House members who have already said “I am done.”
Seventeen are Democrats.
Twenty three are Republicans.
On the Senate side, eight incumbents from both parties have also decided not to run again.
That is 48 members of Congress who have decided to be done.
With almost a year to go before Election Day.
Back on November 12, Ballotpedia’s retirement analysis noted that 45 members had said they were not seeking re-election.
At that point, it was already the highest number of retirements at this stage of a cycle since 2018.
The count has kept climbing.
Now add this:
According to reporting based on Republican insiders, as many as 20 more House Republicans are privately preparing to join them, on top of the 23 who have already said they are leaving.
A widely shared summary of the Puck News analysis quotes this description of life under Trump’s second term:
“The electoral high has long since worn off, replaced by stalled legislation, a capricious and vindictive White House, and the possibility of a midterm beating that could relegate them to the minority.”
They got everything they wanted on paper.
And a growing number of them don’t like living inside it.
Why Walking Away Is A Big Deal Right Now
If you have ever left a bad job, you know this feeling.
You have benefits.
You have seniority.
You have a predictable paycheck.
You also have a stomach ache every Sunday night.
At some point, the “security” stops feeling worth it.
Now scale that up to Congress.
A term limits group that follows elections closely notes that 97 percent of congressional incumbents who ran for re-election in 2024 won their races.
That figure is laid out in their No Uncertain Terms recap.
Ballotpedia’s 2022 review found that 94 percent of incumbents across the federal, state, and local offices they tracked won in the 2022 general election.
Long term data from OpenSecrets shows House re-election rates have been almost always been above 85 percent every cycle since the 1960s.
Usually, they sit in the 90s.
An incumbent House seat is one of the safest jobs in American politics.
So when you see wave after wave of Republicans choosing to surrender that advantage, it is not a mood.
It is not “people just moving on.”
Open seats flip at much higher rates than seats with incumbents.
Every Republican who walks away is rolling the dice that their party might lose that district entirely.
They see the internal polling.
And they are deciding that walking away from a nearly guaranteed job is safer than holding on.
He Is Winning The Map.
He Is Losing The Room.
On paper, Trump is winning the map.
The Supreme Court handed Texas Republicans exactly the map they wanted.
The Court allowed the state to use its new congressional districts for 2026, even though a three judge panel had ruled that the plan likely discriminates on the basis of race.
The Texas Tribune reports that the map is designed to give Republicans control of 30 of Texas’s 38 House seats.
It could flip as many as five seats from blue to red.
SCOTUSblog’s summary walks through the legal maneuver.
The Supreme Court’s conservative majority stepped in, paused the lower court ruling, and green lit the map for 2026 while the case continues.
The short version:
With filing deadlines approaching, the map Trump’s allies wanted will be in place for the midterms.
Texas Republicans celebrated immediately.
Governor Greg Abbott declared that Texas is “officially and legally more red.”
Attorney General Ken Paxton called it “The Big Beautiful Map.”
So yes, on paper, Trump is winning the structural game:
Maps.
Courts.
Procedural control.
But look at what is happening at the same time:
Dozens of his own House members are saying “I am out.”
Insiders are talking about more retirements coming.
Marjorie Taylor Greene is on national television calling her colleagues “terrified.”
He is gaining districts on a map while losing people in the room.
This Is An Opening
This does not guarantee anything.
Many of these open seats are still in deep red districts.
The Texas map, as the Texas Tribune explains, is specifically designed to protect Republican power even as the state’s demographics shift.
In some places, the person who replaces a retiring Republican may be even more extreme.
Especially where the primary electorate is hard MAGA.
And gerrymandering does not vanish because an incumbent retires.
It just shifts which districts are in play and where organizers have to push harder.
So this is not a magic wave that will wash Trumpism away if we sit back and watch retirements roll in.
Three Layers Of Power
Layer 1: Structural power.
This is the stuff that feels fixed.
Maps. Courts. Control of chambers.
Texas is the clearest example right now.
Trump and his allies have a congressional map that experts widely agree is tilted in their favor, and the Supreme Court just decided that map is allowed to stand for 2026.
Layer 2: Public opinion.
Trump’s approval rating has slid again.
The latest Gallup polling puts him at 36 percent, a new low for his second term.
That exhaustion you feel in your own circles is showing up in the numbers.
Layer 3: Internal confidence.
This is harder to see from the outside, but it is just as important.
It is how people behave when they are on the inside.
Do they lean in.
Do they hedge.
Do they start walking toward the doors.
On Layer 1, Trump still looks strong.
On Layer 2, he is eroding.
On Layer 3, the cracks are starting to show.
Greene’s interview give us a clearer picture.
So do the retirements.
They are people trying to get out before the reckoning, without having to say out loud what they know.
They are not standing up to him. They are backing away from him and hoping we do not notice.
What We Do With This
1. Adopt an open district
As retirements continue, rating sites like The Cook Political Report and others will flag certain open seats as “toss up” or “lean” races.
Pick one
Learn the name of the pro democracy candidate.
Follow their updates.
Send 5 dollars.
Make one phone call.
Share one post.
You do not have to save every race.
You just have to decide which one is yours.
One person focusing on one district does more than ten people vaguely liking headlines about a wave.
2. Refuse To Let The Map Stay Invisible
The people who benefit from gerrymandering are counting on this:
Most of us will tune out as soon as someone says “redistricting litigation.”
So change how you talk about it.
Try this instead:
“The Supreme Court just let Texas use a map designed to give Republicans five extra House seats, even after a lower court said it likely discriminated against Black and Latino voters.”
That is specific.
That is understandable.
That is sharable.
3. Build Power That Does Not Depend On Their Maps
Even members of Congress now call the place “dysfunctional.”
Greene called her colleagues “terrified” in her 60 Minutes interview.
Public pressure makes their tactics riskier.
They try to rule a public that no longer complies.
Every boycott you join hits a megadonor’s bottom line.
Every act of mutual aid that keeps someone afloat without begging a captured state.
Every person you teach how this works.
All of it makes it harder for a minority to hold power without consent.
The Exits Are A Warning
In history books, these moments always look obvious.
The maps still favored the ruling party.
But inside the building, people had already started heading to leave.
We do not have hindsight yet.
We only have the signs in front of us.
The fastest early retirement pace at this point in a cycle since 2018.
A wave tilted against Republicans, not Democrats.
A president whose own allies are betting he will be more liability than asset by 2026.
His fiercest defenders, like Greene, calling colleagues “terrified” and walking away.
Something else? Tell us in the comments:
Sources
Retirements and counts
Ballotpedia: U.S. House incumbents not running for re election in 2026
Ballotpedia: U.S. Senate incumbents not running for re election in 2026
GOP exodus analysis
MTG resignation and Epstein files
CBS News: 60 Minutes transcript, “Republicans are terrified to step out of line”
CBS News: “Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene on the Epstein files”
People: “Marjorie Taylor Greene Shares How Some Republicans Really Feel About Donald Trump”
Texas map and Supreme Court
Incumbency and re election rates
No Uncertain Terms podcast: “97 Percent of Incumbents Win Re Election in 2024”
Ballotpedia: “94 percent of incumbents won re election in 2022 general election”
Trump approval
Remember who MTG really is and who she represents: herself. She also now knows that the real power is not Trump but rather the Heritage Foundation and the billionaire Oligarchs. As always…the rich get richer.
Let’s see her next move. I see $, not ethics driving her decision to step aside.
She made her millions, she'll get lifetime health insurance.