The Night We Find Out If the Resistance Has Teeth
The First Real Check on Trump’s Second Act Starts Here.
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TL;DR
In 1974, three months after Nixon resigned, Americans walked into polling places with shattered trust and a failing economy. They voted anyway and delivered one of the largest midterm shifts in modern history. Fifty years later, as votes are counted across the country and highlighted in states like Virginia, New Jersey, and New York, the question is the same as it was back then: when our institutions fail us, how do we respond?
The Test of a Tired Nation
Tonight, as voting concludes across Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City, we’re witnessing a major electoral test of whether American democracy still has the ability to correct course.
According to the American Psychological Association’s Stress in America 2024 report, 77 percent of Americans say the future of the nation is causing them significant stress, and 69 percent say the election itself is adding to that strain.
Many of you have written to me about this. You’re exhausted by the never ending chaos and you’re uncertain whether participating still matters.
Tonight, we begin to get our answer.
When Power Overreached, the People Responded
November 1974, Richard Nixon had resigned in disgrace just three months earlier, and Gerald Ford pardoned him barely a month after that. The economy was in shambles, with inflation climbing above 11 percent and unemployment nearing 9 percent. Americans were reeling from the realization that the institutions they’d trusted had failed them.
And then, Americans went to the polls.
They delivered one of the largest midterm swings in history.
Democrats gained 49 House seats and 4 Senate seats.
Now here’s what makes tonight significant:
Since 1980, Virginia has elected a governor from the party opposite the president in 17 of 20 statewide elections. New Jersey follows nearly the same pattern, often swinging away from the president’s party in its off-year elections.
This has been a historical pattern of democratic accountability.
When presidents overreach, voters respond. When administrations lose their way, elections bring them back.
Every Ballot Is an Act of Belief
Recent polling averages compiled by RealClearPolitics, a nonpartisan aggregator that tracks major national surveys, show Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by about eight points, a sizable margin for either party in recent years.
In 2018, the president’s approval rating hovered around 40 percent and today, many polls suggest it still sits near 41 percent. And in that 2018 midterm, Republicans lost around 40 House seats.
In recent polling, about seven in ten voters say their vote is meant to send a message about the president. Four in ten signaling opposition, three in ten showing support.
In the end, elections are rarely won on persuasion alone. They’re won on participation. Every ballot cast is an act of belief and tonight, that belief is being tested again.
Tell us more in the comments 👇
What’s the single biggest sign, to you, that the system is working, or breaking?
The Local Races That Could Redefine the National Mood
While elections are taking place nationwide, these three stand out for what they reveal. Virginia and New Jersey are the only states holding gubernatorial contests this year, an off-year tradition that often acts as a political barometer. And in New York City, the mayoral race has become a national conversation about the future of the Democratic Party itself. Together, they offer an early glimpse of how voters are responding to this presidency and whether the country still has the instinct to correct course.
In Virginia, we’re watching whether a state built on federal service will hold this administration accountable. Virginia is home to more than 320,000 full-time civilian federal employees. A deep federal-workforce ecosystem means local economies feel every disruption. Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads by about 10-12 points in recent polling. If Spanberger wins decisively, it sends an very clear message that you cannot gut the institutions that make governance possible and expect voters not to respond.
In New Jersey, we’re seeing whether kitchen-table economics still determines elections. Residential electricity costs have surged significantly (some hikes as high as ~40 percent in one year). Democrat Mikie Sherrill leads in most polls, but by margins ranging from 1 to 10 points, that spread tells you everything. This race is genuinely uncertain. And historically, Democrats face a significant challenge: no party has won three consecutive New Jersey gubernatorial elections since the 1960s.
In New York City, we’re witnessing a referendum on the Democratic Party’s future. Thirty-three-year-old democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, a primary upset winner faces former Governor Andrew Cuomo’s attempted comeback as an independent.
Momentum, Intensity, and Durability
The Virginia and New Jersey elections are helpful but imperfect predictors of what might happen in the next midterm. The Center for Politics have shown us that sometimes these races line up with the following year’s national outcome… and sometimes they don’t....
In 2021, the political terrain seemed bleak for Democrats, and by the next cycle things shifted dramatically.
So what will we actually learn tonight?
We’ll learn about momentum and whether the organizing and energy we’ve seen translate into actual participation.
We’ll learn about intensity and which coalition cares more about the outcome.
And we’ll learn about durability and whether resistance to this administration can sustain itself beyond initial outrage.
There is an encouraging sign: Democratic-leaning voters are showing elevated interest in these off-year races, and early indicators suggest a higher level of mobilization than in many recent lower-profile contests.
If Democrats sweep tonight, that enthusiasm becomes self-reinforcing heading into 2026.
If Republicans prevail, it forces necessary questions about our message, coalition and strategy.
And if results split,, we’re looking at one of the most genuinely uncertain political environments in modern American history.
Click Here to read an incredibly powerful story sent in from one of our 50501 Community Members:
“I may not vote, but my existence is political.”
*As an undocumented Minnesotan, this mayoral race hits home and what happens here will expand to the rest of the country.
Keeping Faith With Every Generation Before Us
On November 5, 1974, Americans walked into polling places less than three months after Richard Nixon resigned. The economy was failing, trust in institutions was shattered, and exhaustion was real and deep but people voted anyway.
They voted because democracy is a responsibility we accept and renew with each generation. When it’s threatened, we don’t have the luxury of sitting it out.
Early exit polls show that a large majority of voters said their ballot was about the president’s performance, reflecting how deeply national leadership shapes local choices.
The 50501 community will be watching together as the results come in.
Until then, here’s what I know: If you voted today, you kept faith with every generation that’s done the same hard work of citizenship before us. If you’re reading this from a state that didn’t vote today, hold onto this feeling, we do this again in exactly 365 days.
Democracy is a practice. Exercise it!
It’s showing up when it’s hard, when you’re tired, when the outcome feels uncertain.
See you on the other side of these results.
THANK YOU
To our 80,000+ subscribers you are the heart of this movement.
You are the citizens who stand in long lines, who keep organizing when no one’s watching, who keep believing this country can still become what it promises to be. You write letters, knock on doors, vote even when it feels difficult, and still somehow find the courage to hope.
Every time you share these words, you keep a conversation alive that others have tried to silence. Every time you comment, you remind someone that they are not alone in caring. Every time you show up, you make democracy real again. Thank you for holding onto democracy!
Tonight, take a deep breath. Tomorrow, we keep going.
In solidarity and gratitude,
Blue
Guess I'm the proverbial cockeyed optimist because I believe evil ends when the correct actions occur. Voting can turn the tide and it will as millions of voters know Trump and his enablers to be the amoral creatures that they are. It won't be easy but their moment in history will be one of the darkest and a lesson to be learned for the future. Always remember defending freedom is worth more than anything money can buy.
If we keep up the momentum of peaceful resistance and education and if the Republicans keep bending their knees, the tide will turn. It won't be simple or easy. People are seeing that Trump and the GOP don't care what the voters think.