The $40 Billion Choice: Argentina's Economy vs. Your Local Economy
Trump found $40 billion for Argentina but won't spend $5 billion to prevent an economic contraction hitting your community. Here's why you should care even if you've never used food stamps.
On November 1st, 2025, 42 million Americans are at risk of losing their SNAP benefits, commonly known as food stamps. Yesterday we wrote about what this means for them. Today’s piece is about what it means for the rest of Americans.
Nearly 42 million Americans face the possibility of stopping their SNAP purchases: local supermarkets, neighborhood stores and farmers markets will feel the pinch and the resulting economic contraction will be felt through every business and worker in those communities.
The Trump administration has refused to tap into the roughly $5 billion SNAP contingency fund, citing legal restrictions rather than a lack of funds. “Bottom line, the well has run dry,” the USDA announced, explaining that the contingency reserve is only for situations when benefits are appropriated but fall short, not when appropriations cease altogether.
Yet the same administration is simultaneously negotiating a $20 billion currency swap line with Argentina and is preparing another $20 billion in financing, which if executed would bring the total to $40 billion.. This is many times the size of the $5 billion SNAP contingency fund that could have prevented immediate domestic benefit disruptions.
Pulling billions of dollars out of your local economy affects your paycheck, your property value, and your community’s stability regardless of whether you personally use food assistance.
According to USDA research, every $1 billion cut from SNAP can shrink GDP by roughly $1.5 billion and cost more than 13,000 jobs. When that money disappears, the pressure is put on to all of us.
For every $1 billion cut from SNAP, 13,560 jobs disappear
Every dollar of SNAP benefits generates between $1.54 and $1.80 in total economic activity, according to USDA and Moody’s Analytics research. Families spend about 97 percent of their benefits within 30 days, funneling money straight into grocery stores. Those stores order more products, food manufacturers increase production, trucking companies move more goods, and every link in the chain needs more workers to keep up.
For every $1 billion cut from SNAP, the economy loses about $1.54 billion in economic activity and roughly 13,560 jobs disappear.
Many of those jobs are concentrated in food-related industries like grocery clerks and truck drivers to warehouse and manufacturing workers: People who keep store shelves stocked and goods moving.
SNAP accounts for 8% of all food purchases in America
SNAP accounts for about 8 percent of food-at-home purchases, and the money flows through roughly 248,000 retailers: from Walmart super-centers to convenience stores.
When SNAP payments stop, they lose the additional purchases that families make once their food budget loosens. Independent and small-town grocers already squeezed by online retailers and big-box chains may be forced into impossible choices such as to reduce staffing hours, shrinking inventory, or even shutting their doors. During the Reagan administration’s sweeping SNAP cuts in the early 1980s, hunger and malnutrition surged across the country. Federal spending on food assistance dropped by double digits, and millions of low-income families suddenly found themselves without enough to eat.
Food banks began to multiply because families were desperate. In 1980, there were only a few dozen across the U.S. By the mid-1980s, there were hundreds. What we now think of as a permanent part of America’s safety net was born out of emergency response to government withdrawal.
We might be about to watch history repeat itself, only faster if the government continues this shutdown.
Click here for a Concise History of the Food Stamp Program
“I have a job. I’m not worried.”
When your grocery store manager starts sending workers home because shelves remain stocked, when the coffee shop across the street limits its hours to save on wages and when realtors quietly admit that homes are sitting longer on the market is when you’ll start to feel it.
A healthy economy is built on steady local demand.
Small businesses that depend on local spending will see revenues drop and some will lay off workers. Those newly unemployed workers will cut their own spending and even more businesses will hurt resulting in even more jobs lost.
During the Great Recession, SNAP didn’t just feed families it prevented the economic death spiral from getting worse. One study found that every $5 in SNAP benefits generated $9.20 in local community spending.
Now we’re doing the opposite by pulling billions of dollars out of the economy while it’s already unstable.
It’s mid-December, and your neighbor just got their hours cut
It’s mid-December. Your local grocery store is noticeably emptier on weekends. The manager just cut evening shifts because there’s no point staying open when nobody’s shopping. Your neighbor who works there just got their hours cut. Now they’re behind on their electric bill and cutting back on everything, including shopping at your small business.
Meanwhile, food banks are overwhelmed. Oregon, which has over 750,000 SNAP recipients, reported that food bank visits jumped from 860,000 in 2019 to 2.5 million in 2024. That was before this shutdown.
If SNAP benefit flows are disrupted, those stress lines will climb further into your paycheck, business, and neighborhoods.
Trump can mobilize $40 billion for Argentina but won’t access $5 billion to feed Americans
The administration says it won’t tap USDA’s $5B contingency fund for November SNAP during the shutdown arguing the fund is reserved for disasters and can’t cover routine benefits.
At the same time, the U.S. signed a $20B currency-stabilization/swap agreement with Argentina and officials say they’re working to mobilize another $20B from sovereign funds and private banks up to $40B in total support.
The rollout coincided with Argentina’s Oct. 26 midterm elections, and President Trump publicly suggested continued U.S. support would depend on how President Javier Milei’s party performed (“we won’t waste our time” if it didn’t). Critics call that election-timed leverage.
On trade, Argentina temporarily lifted export taxes on soy and other grains in late September and Chinese buyers immediately booked multiple Argentine soybean cargoes, while U.S. farmers remained sidelined fueling backlash from farm groups and some Republicans.
Farm-state critics, including Rep. Angie Craig and others, argue the plan undercuts U.S. producers during a shutdown. Treasury counters that the facility is a stabilization tool, not a bailout, and says taxpayers won’t lose money.
Stories that connect policy decisions to your kitchen table don’t get told enough
Stories like this don’t get told enough in mainstream media. They’re complicated—and sometimes uncomfortable because they force us to look closer and ask, “Will this affect me?” They take real research, context, and a willingness to dig past the partisan talking points.
That’s what the 50501 Movement Substack is about and growing towards: cutting through the noise to show you how decisions in Washington affect you and every one of your community members.
We’re watching in real-time as this choice moves through the economy
The administration has made a clear policy choice: prioritize a $40 billion foreign economic intervention over $5 billion in domestic emergency food assistance. The consequences of this decision will unfold over the coming weeks and months.
This publication will continue monitoring:
How grocery stores in different regions respond
Whether food banks can handle the surge
Which communities get hit hardest
Which politicians stay silent and which ones speak up
This represents sustained investigative coverage designed to document real economic impacts rather than political rhetoric. The goal is accountability through comprehensive reporting.
Community reporting is essential to this work. Share what you’re observing in your area: changes in retail operations, food bank capacity, local economic indicators, and how elected officials are responding to these developments.
Your local observations provide crucial data points for understanding national policy impacts at the community level.
Join the conversation, leave a comment below.
Sources:
PBS NewsHour: Why Trump is giving Argentina a $20 billion lifeline
Foreign Policy: Trump’s politically-motivated Argentina swap line
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities: SNAP Boosts Local Economies
The 50501 Movement Substack is independent journalism funded by readers like you. No corporate backing. No political party money. Just honest reporting about the issues that affect your life. Thank you for reading!
So how exactly is that America first? You are cutting health insurance AND food assistance from families who need it most. This is absolutely the worst administration America has ever had, bar none. We are angry and ashamed.
I hope you realise that Argentina is only getting bailed out because trump wants their peso's to keep dealing in, for his crypto scam. Nothing personal America. I need a few billion more and then I'll think about helping you. The little shit thinks everybody is as stupid as the MAGA klan! TRUMP FIRST, then maybe he'll help the USA but don't bank on it. Pun intended!